Since 2003, I have been using a proprietary system called DBBT.
It is a measure of statistical misalignment between current price and expected technical level. DBBT is not a predictive trading signal. It identifies when the current price deviates significantly from the expected technical level.
Historically, these misalignments have always been reabsorbed — typically within months. However, the timing and manner of reabsorption are not predictable: money management may dictate not acting on a given misalignment or managing it in ways that yield different outcomes.
As of December 2025, this signal has exceeded the longest delay ever recorded in more than twenty years of data. We are in uncharted territory.
"Being early is indistinguishable from being wrong — until it isn't."
This is the phrase that separates cycles from structural breaks. Every bubble, every crash, every change of government has been accompanied by this phrase. Sometimes it was right. More often, it was not.
The misalignment I observe is real and measurable. Historically, it has always resolved. I do not know whether this time will be different.
Annual probability of event capture
For those who believe a strategy must be right 70% of the time, this figure appears inadequate. But the point is not frequency — it is payoff asymmetry.
This strategy accepts being wrong most of the time. It does not seek certainty. It seeks asymmetry.
By that date, if the event has not occurred, the delay will have exceeded the historical maximum recorded by DBBT over its twenty years of operation by 2 standard deviations.
Beyond that point, continuing makes no statistical sense.
Why should markets decline by 30%? I have no idea. It could be a geopolitical crisis, the AI bubble if one exists, a banking shock, a recession. Any hypothesis I might formulate now would be worth exactly as much as one predicting uninterrupted bull markets for the next ten years: nothing.
The only relevant element is statistical misalignment. If the event occurs, it will be because it was already in the numbers.
"The market has its own statistical memory, independent of the narratives we construct to make sense of it."
It is the market that has risen while leaving the fewest cushion zones, and whose volatility may offer better payoff characteristics than other indices.
Any eventual decline will not be a local phenomenon — this is purely a strategic implementation choice.
Either we are witnessing a paradigm shift,
or what is expected will occur by December 2028.
IT
